Pennsylvania is a true toss-up. About 50% of voters here vote Democratic and 50% Republican.
About 78% of adults in Pennsylvania typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Pennsylvania, ~39% vote Democratic, ~39% Republican, and ~22% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Pennsylvania compares
Among states within 500 miles, Pennsylvania sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 5 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 12 leaning the other way.
Politics vary noticeably by county within Pennsylvania. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+35) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+37), a spread of about 72 points.
Why Pennsylvania leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Pennsylvania. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Pennsylvania sits above the national average on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Pennsylvania looks the way it does
Turnout in Pennsylvania sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby States
- Maryland D+33
- District of Columbia D+80
- Delaware D+17
- New Jersey D+11
- New York D+16
- Virginia D+10
- West Virginia R+41
- Ohio R+8
- Rhode Island D+17
- Massachusetts D+26
States with Similar Populations
- Illinois D+15
- Ohio R+8
- Georgia D+4
- North Carolina Even
- Michigan D+2
- New Jersey D+11
- Virginia D+10
- Washington D+16
- Arizona Even
- Massachusetts D+26
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Pennsylvania Department of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.