Arizona is a true toss-up. About 51% of voters here vote Democratic and 49% Republican.
About 65% of adults in Arizona typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Arizona, ~33% vote Democratic, ~32% Republican, and ~35% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Arizona compares
Among states within 500 miles, Arizona sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 1 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 3 leaning the other way.
Politics vary noticeably by county within Arizona. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+8) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+32), a spread of about 40 points.
Why Arizona leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Arizona. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Developed land and Democratic lean
Places with a heavily developed built environment tend to lean Democratic; Arizona sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Developed land does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Arizona looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Arizona is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby States
- New Mexico D+4
- Utah R+19
- Nevada D+5
- California D+20
- Colorado D+12
- Wyoming R+41
- Idaho R+34
- Texas R+4
- Oklahoma R+26
- Kansas R+14
States with Similar Populations
- Massachusetts D+26
- Tennessee R+23
- Indiana R+15
- Washington D+16
- Maryland D+33
- Missouri R+14
- Wisconsin Even
- Colorado D+12
- Minnesota D+5
- Virginia D+10
All Local Stats
Home Services
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.