Michigan is a true toss-up. About 51% of voters here vote Democratic and 49% Republican.
About 81% of adults in Michigan typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Michigan, ~41% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~19% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Michigan compares
Among states within 500 miles, Michigan sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 7 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 3 leaning the other way.
Politics vary noticeably by county within Michigan. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+29) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+36), a spread of about 65 points.
Why Michigan leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Michigan. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; Michigan sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Michigan looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Michigan is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 67%, about 7 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 75% of households in Michigan own their home, above 96% of states. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby States
- Ohio R+8
- Indiana R+15
- Wisconsin Even
- Illinois D+15
- West Virginia R+41
- Kentucky R+28
- Pennsylvania Even
- Iowa R+12
- Minnesota D+5
- New York D+16
States with Similar Populations
- North Carolina Even
- Georgia D+4
- New Jersey D+11
- Virginia D+10
- Ohio R+8
- Washington D+16
- Illinois D+15
- Pennsylvania Even
- Arizona Even
- Massachusetts D+26
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Michigan Department of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.