Phelps leans Republican by roughly 18 points: about 41% of voters vote Democratic and 59% Republican.
About 82% of adults in Phelps typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Phelps, ~34% vote Democratic, ~48% Republican, and ~18% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Phelps compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Phelps leans more Republican than 38 of 111 neighbors.
Phelps runs about 31 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while Phelps is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Phelps. The east side is the most Republican-leaning (R+41) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+9), a spread of about 32 points.
Why Phelps leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Phelps, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Phelps votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 27%, modestly below the New York average of 36%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Phelps runs against the grain of New York, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Phelps, NY sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Phelps looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Phelps is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 65%, above 67% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Oaks Corners, NY R+24
- Orleans, NY R+30
- Marbletown, NY R+21
- Thompson, NY R+34
- Gypsum, NY R+29
- Clifton Springs, NY R+14
- Newark, NY R+13
- Flint, NY R+29
- Geneva, NY D+21
- Port Gibson, NY R+31
Cities with Similar Populations
- Rossville, IN R+55
- Upper Falls, WV R+42
- Marble, NC R+57
- Lewiston, MI R+36
- Crandon, WI R+27
- Laton, CA R+37
- Lincoln, ME R+28
- Midway South, TX Even
- Eminence, KY R+40
- Arcadia, OK R+41
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.