Phoenix is a true toss-up. About 49% of voters here vote Democratic and 51% Republican.
About 96% of adults in Phoenix typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Phoenix, ~47% vote Democratic, ~49% Republican, and ~4% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Phoenix compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Phoenix sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 59 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 59 leaning the other way.
Phoenix runs about 31 points more Republican than Maryland as a whole. Maryland leans Democratic overall, while Phoenix sits closer to the political middle.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Phoenix. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (D+15) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+10), a spread of about 26 points.
Why Phoenix leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Phoenix, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Phoenix votes against the grain of Maryland. Maryland leans Democratic overall, while Phoenix runs about 31 points more Republican.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Phoenix, MD sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Phoenix looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Phoenix is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 75%, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 96% of households in Phoenix own their home, about 21 points above the U.S. average of 75%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 99% of adults in Phoenix have completed high school, above 97% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Baldwin, MD R+22
- Cockeysville, MD D+25
- Glen Arm, MD R+16
- Timonium, MD D+21
- Monkton, MD R+7
- Hydes, MD R+26
- Sparks Glencoe, MD D+3
- Lutherville, MD D+24
- Mays Chapel, MD D+15
- Lutherville-Timonium, MD D+21
Cities with Similar Populations
- Wheatfield, IN R+56
- Dadeville, AL R+39
- Sugarcreek, OH R+65
- Rensselaer, IN R+47
- Smithville, NJ R+2
- Brewerton, NY R+9
- Preston, ID R+75
- Waverly, NY R+32
- South Kensington, MD D+63
- West Point, GA R+16
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Maryland State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.