San Carlos leans heavily Democratic by roughly 38 points: about 69% of voters vote Democratic and 31% Republican.
About 48% of adults in San Carlos typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in San Carlos, ~33% vote Democratic, ~15% Republican, and ~52% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How San Carlos compares
Among cities within 25 miles, San Carlos leans more Democratic than 5 of 7 neighbors.
San Carlos runs about 44 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while San Carlos is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within San Carlos. The southeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+48) and the west side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+36), a spread of about 12 points.
Why San Carlos leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for San Carlos, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
San Carlos votes against the grain of Arizona. Arizona leans Republican overall, while San Carlos runs about 44 points more Democratic. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 62% of adults in San Carlos have never been married, in the top fraction of cities.
Food insecurity and voter turnout
Places with high food insecurity tend to turn out at a lower rate; San Carlos, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Food insecurity does not directly drive turnout; it reflects economic hardship, which lines up with lower voting.
Why turnout in San Carlos looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. San Carlos is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 27%, about 27 points below the Arizona average of 54%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 41% of households in San Carlos rent, about 16 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 49% of adults in San Carlos report food insecurity, in the top fraction of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Peridot, AZ D+49
- Little Acres, AZ R+10
- Globe, AZ R+33
- Midland City, AZ R+6
- Claypool, AZ R+25
- Miami, AZ R+14
- Bylas, AZ D+54
- Geronimo, AZ D+25
- Top-of-the-World, AZ R+52
Cities with Similar Populations
- Bosque Farms, NM R+12
- Camden, NY R+38
- Nowthen, MN R+40
- Tunica, MS D+23
- Carlisle, KY R+59
- Norway, ME R+19
- Hurstbourne, KY R+3
- Edwardsville, PA Even
- Corunna, MI R+27
- Clarksburg, NJ R+33
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.