Geronimo leans Democratic by roughly 24 points: about 62% of voters vote Democratic and 38% Republican.
About 46% of adults in Geronimo typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Geronimo, ~29% vote Democratic, ~17% Republican, and ~54% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Geronimo compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Geronimo leans more Democratic than 5 of 8 neighbors.
Geronimo runs about 30 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Geronimo is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Geronimo. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+54) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+76), a spread of about 130 points.
Why Geronimo leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Geronimo, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many never-married adults vote Democratic. About 44% of adults in Geronimo have never been married, well above similar-sized cities (around 24%). Geronimo runs against the grain of Arizona, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Food insecurity and voter turnout
Places with high food insecurity tend to turn out at a lower rate; Geronimo, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Food insecurity does not directly drive turnout; it reflects economic hardship, which lines up with lower voting.
Why turnout in Geronimo looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Geronimo is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 35%, about 19 points below the Arizona average of 54%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 45% of adults in Geronimo report food insecurity, in the top fraction of cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 81% of adults in Geronimo have completed high school, below 89% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Bylas, AZ D+54
- Fort Thomas, AZ R+70
- Eden, AZ R+76
- Pima, AZ R+67
- Central, AZ R+63
- Klondyke, AZ R+55
- Peridot, AZ D+49
- Old Columbine, AZ R+71
- Thatcher, AZ R+57
Cities with Similar Populations
- Yorktown, IA R+55
- Loma, MT R+53
- Cairo, MS R+83
- Wonsevu, KS R+62
- Philomath, GA R+49
- Canawaugus, NY R+29
- Rutan, PA R+59
- Stennett, IA R+49
- Womack, TX R+72
- Gray Point, LA R+84
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.