Santa Cruz leans heavily Democratic by roughly 36 points: about 68% of voters vote Democratic and 32% Republican.
About 32% of adults in Santa Cruz typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Santa Cruz, ~22% vote Democratic, ~10% Republican, and ~68% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Santa Cruz compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Santa Cruz leans more Democratic than 15 of 24 neighbors.
Santa Cruz runs about 42 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Santa Cruz is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Santa Cruz. The northeast side runs the most Democratic (D+56) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+28), a spread of about 85 points.
Why Santa Cruz leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Santa Cruz, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Santa Cruz votes against the grain of Arizona. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Santa Cruz runs about 42 points more Democratic. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 60% of adults in Santa Cruz have never been married, in the top fraction of cities.
Food insecurity and voter turnout
Places with high food insecurity tend to turn out at a lower rate; Santa Cruz, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Food insecurity does not directly drive turnout; it reflects economic hardship, which lines up with lower voting.
Why turnout in Santa Cruz looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Santa Cruz is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 38%, about 16 points below the Arizona average of 54%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 44% of households in Santa Cruz rent, about 19 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 44% of adults in Santa Cruz report food insecurity, in the top fraction of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Laveen Village, AZ D+63
- Sacate, AZ D+59
- Laveen, AZ D+32
- Silver Bell, AZ R+6
- Maricopa, AZ R+9
- Tolleson, AZ D+25
- Rainbow Valley, AZ R+30
- Guadalupe, AZ D+40
Cities with Similar Populations
- Woolum, AR R+63
- Woodson, OR R+33
- Phlegar, VA R+66
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.