Guadalupe leans heavily Democratic by roughly 40 points: about 70% of voters vote Democratic and 30% Republican.
About 43% of adults in Guadalupe typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Guadalupe, ~30% vote Democratic, ~13% Republican, and ~57% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Guadalupe compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Guadalupe leans more Democratic than 23 of 32 neighbors.
Guadalupe runs about 45 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Guadalupe is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Why Guadalupe leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Guadalupe, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. More than 99% of residents in Guadalupe live in densely developed areas, about 64 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 40% of adults in Guadalupe have never been married, above 93% of cities. Guadalupe runs against the grain of Arizona, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Guadalupe, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Guadalupe looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Guadalupe is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 40%, about 14 points below the Arizona average of 54%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 45% of households in Guadalupe rent, about 20 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 38% of adults in Guadalupe report food insecurity, above 98% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Tempe, AZ D+27
- Chandler, AZ D+5
- Sacate, AZ D+59
- Sun Lakes, AZ R+11
- Laveen, AZ D+32
- Paradise Valley, AZ R+15
- Gilbert, AZ R+12
- Phoenix, AZ Even
- Mesa, AZ R+7
- Laveen Village, AZ D+63
Cities with Similar Populations
- Selkirk, NY Even
- Heflin, AL R+80
- East Pasadena, CA D+33
- Swanton, VT R+28
- Gwinn, MI R+19
- Corcoran, MN R+12
- Holdrege, NE R+50
- Williamson, NY R+25
- Adamsville, AL D+31
- Olathe, CO R+49
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.