Sebastian County leans Republican by roughly 28 points: about 36% of voters vote Democratic and 64% Republican.
About 52% of adults in Sebastian County typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Sebastian County, ~19% vote Democratic, ~33% Republican, and ~48% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Sebastian County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Sebastian County is the least Republican-leaning.
Politically, Sebastian County sits close to the rest of Arkansas.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Sebastian County. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+2) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+69), a spread of about 72 points.
Why Sebastian County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Sebastian County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Sebastian County votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 68%, far above the Arkansas average of 13%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with renter-heavy households tend to turn out at a lower rate; Sebastian County, AR sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Sebastian County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Sebastian County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 38% of households in Sebastian County rent, above 91% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Crawford County, AR R+54
- Sequoyah County, OK R+58
- Le Flore County, OK R+63
- Franklin County, AR R+64
- Scott County, AR R+70
- Logan County, AR R+63
- Adair County, OK R+54
- Haskell County, OK R+69
- Johnson County, AR R+54
- Cherokee County, OK R+28
Counties with Similar Populations
- Chautauqua County, NY R+16
- Linn County, OR R+25
- Clarke County, GA D+35
- Bossier Parish, LA R+30
- Fayette County, PA R+36
- Hunterdon County, NJ R+6
- Berkshire County, MA D+27
- Ascension Parish, LA R+32
- Wichita County, TX R+31
- Skagit County, WA D+4
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.