Sebastian leans slightly Republican by roughly 10 points: about 45% of voters vote Democratic and 55% Republican.
About 52% of adults in Sebastian typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Sebastian, ~24% vote Democratic, ~29% Republican, and ~47% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Sebastian compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Sebastian leans more Republican than 34 of 53 neighbors.
Sebastian runs about 4 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole.
Why Sebastian leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Sebastian, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 9% of adults in Sebastian hold a bachelor's degree, about 17 points below the Texas average of 26%.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Sebastian, TX sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Sebastian looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Sebastian is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 46%, about 8 points below the Texas average of 54%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 66% of adults in Sebastian have completed high school, in the bottom fraction of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Yznaga, TX R+19
- Lyford, TX R+7
- Santa Rosa, TX R+10
- Combes, TX R+9
- Stuart Place, TX R+14
- Raymondville, TX R+3
- Primera, TX R+9
- La Villa, TX R+8
- Laguna Seca, TX R+11
- Palm Valley, TX R+23
Cities with Similar Populations
- Vestaburg, MI R+51
- Elmwood Place, OH D+7
- Folly Beach, SC R+3
- Woodway, VA R+59
- Colstrip, MT R+52
- Mora, ID R+49
- Hartford, GA R+33
- Farley, IA R+39
- Presto, PA R+5
- Sardis, GA R+22
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.