Seguin leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 58% of adults in Seguin typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Seguin, ~21% vote Democratic, ~37% Republican, and ~42% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Seguin compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Seguin leans more Republican than 15 of 43 neighbors.
Seguin runs about 12 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Seguin. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+44) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+5), a spread of about 38 points.
Why Seguin leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Seguin, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Seguin votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 49%, modestly above the Texas average of 35%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as Seguin, TX does.
Why turnout in Seguin looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Seguin is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The uninsured rate here is about 22%, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 10%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 29% of households in Seguin rent, above 82% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Mc Queeney, TX R+42
- Geronimo, TX R+62
- Kingsbury, TX R+52
- Schumannsville, TX R+33
- New Berlin, TX R+66
- Marion, TX R+40
- Santa Clara, TX R+41
- Zorn, TX R+41
- New Braunfels, TX R+28
- Nockenut, TX R+50
Cities with Similar Populations
- Brunswick, OH R+21
- Hackensack, NJ D+36
- Hanover, PA R+29
- Columbus, MS D+11
- North Bethesda, MD D+58
- Bessemer, AL D+33
- Thomasville, NC R+28
- Cutler Bay, FL R+11
- Butler, PA R+29
- Elizabethtown, KY R+25
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.