Shelby leans heavily Republican by roughly 32 points: about 34% of voters vote Democratic and 66% Republican.
About 89% of adults in Shelby typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Shelby, ~30% vote Democratic, ~59% Republican, and ~11% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Shelby compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Shelby leans more Republican than 2 of 10 neighbors.
Shelby runs about 13 points more Republican than Montana as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Shelby. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+62) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+8), a spread of about 54 points.
Why Shelby leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Shelby, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Shelby votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 44%, far above the Montana average of 13%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Shelby, MT sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Shelby looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Shelby is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Ethridge, MT R+60
- Dunkirk, MT R+63
- Oilmont, MT R+61
- Kevin, MT R+64
- Conrad, MT R+49
- Little Browning, MT D+71
- Valier, MT R+50
- Cut Bank, MT R+24
- Galata, MT R+62
- Santa Rita, MT R+65
Cities with Similar Populations
- Choudrant, LA R+73
- Knoxville, MD R+19
- Union City, OH R+59
- Mcadoo, PA R+37
- Monroe, UT R+70
- Fife Lake, MI R+40
- Springfield, NE R+38
- California, KY R+54
- Beach City, TX R+68
- Pawnee, IL R+39
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Montana Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.