Shelter Island Heights leans heavily Democratic by roughly 30 points: about 65% of voters vote Democratic and 35% Republican.
About more than 99% of adults in Shelter Island Heights typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Shelter Island Heights, ~74% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~-14% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Shelter Island Heights compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Shelter Island Heights leans more Democratic than 36 of 40 neighbors.
Shelter Island Heights runs about 18 points more Democratic than New York as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Shelter Island Heights. The east side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+34) and the southeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+24), a spread of about 10 points.
Why Shelter Island Heights leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Shelter Island Heights, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 80% of adults in Shelter Island Heights hold a bachelor's degree, about 52 points above the U.S. average of 28%.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Shelter Island Heights, NY sits above the national average on this measure.
Why turnout in Shelter Island Heights looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Shelter Island Heights is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 67%, about 7 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and more than 99% of households in Shelter Island Heights own their home, compared to around 85% in nearby cities. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in Shelter Island Heights have completed high school, above 81% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Shelter Island, NY D+26
- Greenport, NY D+17
- Southold, NY Even
- East Marion, NY D+15
- North Haven, NY D+31
- Noyack, NY D+14
- Peconic, NY R+4
- Orient, NY D+34
Cities with Similar Populations
- Yoder, CO R+64
- Colver, PA R+48
- Baldwin Place, NY R+6
- Section Thirty, MN D+11
- Mount Hood Village, OR D+5
- Avery, TX R+70
- Shevlin, MN R+52
- Nye, WI R+37
- Pinetown, NC R+57
- Readfield, WI R+44
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.