Smyth County is a Republican stronghold. About 22% of voters here vote Democratic and 78% Republican.
About 72% of adults in Smyth County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Smyth County, ~16% vote Democratic, ~56% Republican, and ~28% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Smyth County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Smyth County leans more Republican than 7 of 18 neighbors.
Smyth County runs about 62 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Smyth County is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Smyth County. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+67) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+51), a spread of about 16 points.
Why Smyth County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Smyth County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with a high white share and below-average college attainment vote Republican. In Smyth County, about 94% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 21 points above the U.S. average of 72%; about 16% of adults hold a bachelor's degree, about 12 points below the Virginia average of 29%. Car-dependent areas vote Republican, and about 82% of residents in Smyth County drive to work alone, above 83% of counties. Smyth County runs against the grain of Virginia, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Local retail density and voter turnout
Places with dense local retail within a mile tend to turn out at a higher rate; Smyth County, VA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Nearby retail does not change how people vote; it reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Smyth County looks the way it does
Turnout in Smyth County sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Tazewell County, VA R+58
- Washington County, VA R+52
- Grayson County, VA R+59
- Wythe County, VA R+57
- Ashe County, NC R+47
- Russell County, VA R+68
- Johnson County, TN R+67
- Alleghany County, NC R+58
- Bland County, VA R+68
- Bristol City, VA R+32
Counties with Similar Populations
- Meade County, SD R+51
- Schoharie County, NY R+29
- Haralson County, GA R+73
- Park County, WY R+51
- Sumter County, GA D+13
- Bladen County, NC R+17
- Meade County, KY R+49
- Adams County, MS D+17
- Cass County, MN R+30
- Door County, WI R+3
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.