South Valley leans Democratic by roughly 18 points: about 59% of voters vote Democratic and 41% Republican.
About 59% of adults in South Valley typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in South Valley, ~35% vote Democratic, ~24% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How South Valley compares
Among cities within 25 miles, South Valley leans more Democratic than 27 of 33 neighbors.
South Valley runs about 12 points more Democratic than New Mexico as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within South Valley. The northeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+30) and the southwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+5), a spread of about 25 points.
Why South Valley leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for South Valley, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 80% of residents in South Valley live in densely developed areas, about 43 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 36% of adults in South Valley have never been married, above 88% of cities.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; South Valley, NM sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in South Valley looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. South Valley is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The uninsured rate here is about 23%, about 7 points above the New Mexico average of 16%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 28% of adults in South Valley report food insecurity, above 94% of cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 78% of adults in South Valley have completed high school, below 93% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Los Padillas, NM R+3
- Albuquerque, NM D+14
- Kirtland Afb, NM Even
- Isleta Village Proper, NM D+36
- Isleta, NM D+36
- Los Ranchos de Albuquerque, NM D+26
- North Valley, NM D+14
- Paradise Hills, NM D+6
- Bosque Farms, NM R+12
Cities with Similar Populations
- Port Huron, MI R+9
- Vicksburg, MS D+13
- Old Bridge, NJ R+14
- Hillsborough, NJ D+8
- Security-Widefield, CO R+10
- Estero, FL R+26
- Claremont, CA D+34
- New Smyrna Beach, FL R+29
- Bell Gardens, CA D+36
- Summit, AZ D+22
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.