Square Butte is a Republican stronghold. About 25% of voters here vote Democratic and 75% Republican.
About 60% of adults in Square Butte typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Square Butte, ~15% vote Democratic, ~45% Republican, and ~40% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Square Butte compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Square Butte leans more Republican than 2 of 6 neighbors.
Square Butte runs about 30 points more Republican than Montana as a whole.
Why Square Butte leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Square Butte, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 2% of residents in Square Butte live in densely developed areas, about 11 points below the Montana average of 13%.
Developed land and Republican lean
Places with a rural land-use pattern tend to lean Republican; Square Butte, MT sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Developed land does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Square Butte looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 35% of households in Square Butte rent, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and Square Butte sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Carter, MT R+50
- Fort Benton, MT R+44
- Loma, MT R+53
- Virgelle, MT R+52
- Floweree, MT R+55
- Highwood, MT R+51
- Portage, MT R+57
- Shonkin, MT R+51
- Ledger, MT R+57
Cities with Similar Populations
- Adna, WA R+44
- Kyle, NC R+52
- McLeods Corner, MI R+39
- Sun Hill, WV R+80
- Mud Butte, SD R+82
- Naukati Bay, AK R+22
- Narrows Creek, PA R+32
- Sinclair, WV R+62
- Sinnamahoning, PA R+56
- Sitka, TN R+63
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Montana Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.