St. Paul leans heavily Republican by roughly 32 points: about 34% of voters vote Democratic and 66% Republican.
About 82% of adults in St. Paul typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in St. Paul, ~28% vote Democratic, ~54% Republican, and ~18% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How St. Paul compares
Among cities within 25 miles, St. Paul leans more Republican than 57 of 109 neighbors.
St. Paul runs about 14 points more Republican than Missouri as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within St. Paul. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+48) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+23), a spread of about 26 points.
Why St. Paul leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for St. Paul, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
St. Paul votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 33%, modestly above the Missouri average of 22%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 83% of households in St. Paul are family households, above 95% of cities.
Food insecurity and voter turnout
Places with low food insecurity tend to turn out at a higher rate; St. Paul, MO sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Food insecurity does not directly drive turnout; it reflects economic hardship, which lines up with lower voting.
Why turnout in St. Paul looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. St. Paul is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 67%, about 7 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 98% of households in St. Paul own their home, compared to around 83% in nearby cities. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 98% of adults in St. Paul have completed high school, above 94% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Josephville, MO R+35
- O'fallon, MO R+16
- Lake St. Louis, MO R+16
- Maryknoll, MO R+55
- Flint Hill, MO R+19
- Dardenne Prairie, MO R+17
- Wentzville, MO R+24
- Old Monroe, MO R+57
- Cottleville, MO R+16
Cities with Similar Populations
- O'Neill, NE R+66
- Fountain, FL R+74
- Barto, PA R+37
- Newton Grove, NC R+46
- Kitty Hawk, NC R+27
- Hawley, MN R+30
- Woodstock, NY D+61
- Pauline, SC R+65
- Millinocket, ME R+14
- Pendergrass, GA R+57
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.