St. Vrain is a Republican stronghold. About 13% of voters here vote Democratic and 87% Republican.
About 78% of adults in St. Vrain typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in St. Vrain, ~10% vote Democratic, ~68% Republican, and ~22% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How St. Vrain compares
Among cities within 25 miles, St. Vrain leans more Republican than 6 of 11 neighbors.
St. Vrain runs about 80 points more Republican than New Mexico as a whole. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while St. Vrain is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why St. Vrain leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for St. Vrain, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
St. Vrain votes against the grain of New Mexico. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while St. Vrain runs about 80 points more Republican. Rural areas vote Republican, and St. Vrain sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 3%, below 92% of cities).
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; St. Vrain, NM sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in St. Vrain looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 95% of households in St. Vrain own their home, about 15 points above the New Mexico average of 80%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and more than 99% of adults in St. Vrain have completed high school, in the top fraction of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Grier, NM R+73
- Ranchvale, NM R+81
- Melrose, NM R+59
- Cannon Air Force Base, NM R+55
- Hollene, NM R+81
- Clovis, NM R+31
- Floyd, NM R+75
- Krider, NM R+77
- Portales, NM R+32
- Texico, NM R+59
Cities with Similar Populations
- Oak Park, PA R+44
- Youngstown, IL R+48
- Round Bottom, WV R+64
- Paradise, AZ R+44
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.