Sterling leans slightly Republican by roughly 6 points: about 47% of voters vote Democratic and 53% Republican.
About 67% of adults in Sterling typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Sterling, ~31% vote Democratic, ~36% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Sterling compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Sterling is the least Republican-leaning.
Sterling runs about 16 points more Republican than Illinois as a whole. Illinois leans Democratic overall, while Sterling is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Sterling. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+8) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+19), a spread of about 27 points.
Why Sterling leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Sterling, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Sterling votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 72%, far above the Illinois average of 33%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Sterling runs against the grain of Illinois, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Sterling, IL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Sterling looks the way it does
Turnout in Sterling sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Rock Falls, IL R+16
- Galt, IL R+34
- Como, IL R+37
- Yeoward Addition, IL R+39
- Nelson, IL R+23
- Penrose, IL R+38
- Coleta, IL R+38
- Round Grove, IL R+37
- Woosung, IL R+26
- Harmon, IL R+28
Cities with Similar Populations
- Glenvar Heights, FL R+11
- Hawthorne, NJ R+8
- Arcadia, FL R+31
- Mill Valley, CA D+55
- Lanham, MD D+68
- Albert Lea, MN R+11
- Highland, UT R+49
- St. John, IN R+27
- Northampton, PA R+18
- Altus, OK R+41
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Illinois State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.