Arcadia leans heavily Republican by roughly 32 points: about 34% of voters vote Democratic and 66% Republican.
About 60% of adults in Arcadia typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Arcadia, ~20% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~40% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Arcadia compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Arcadia leans more Republican than 3 of 27 neighbors.
Arcadia runs about 18 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Arcadia. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+45) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+54), a spread of about 99 points.
Why Arcadia leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Arcadia, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Arcadia votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 41%, well below the Florida average of 57%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Arcadia sits in the bottom quarter (about 12%, below 88% of cities).
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as Arcadia, FL does.
Why turnout in Arcadia looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Arcadia is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 43%, about 14 points below the Florida average of 56%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 28% of households in Arcadia rent, above 81% of cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 74% of adults in Arcadia have completed high school, below 96% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Southeast Arcadia, FL R+24
- Lake Suzy, FL R+52
- Cubitis, FL R+64
- Nocatee, FL R+66
- Pine Level, FL R+63
- Brownville, FL R+65
- Hull, FL R+65
- Fort Ogden, FL R+61
- Joshua, FL R+43
- Limestone, FL R+68
Cities with Similar Populations
- Hawthorne, NJ R+8
- Lanham, MD D+68
- Sterling, IL R+5
- Glenvar Heights, FL R+11
- St. John, IN R+27
- Mill Valley, CA D+55
- Albert Lea, MN R+11
- Highland, UT R+49
- Rockingham, NC R+16
- Prospect, KY R+7
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.