Tarbellville is a true toss-up. About 49% of voters here vote Democratic and 51% Republican. These figures are model estimates: Vermont did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the numbers above come from demographic and health features rather than local ground truth.
About 79% of adults in Tarbellville typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Tarbellville, ~39% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~21% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Tarbellville compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Tarbellville sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 47 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 42 leaning the other way.
Tarbellville runs about 35 points more Republican than Vermont as a whole. Vermont leans Democratic overall, while Tarbellville sits closer to the political middle.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Tarbellville. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+47) and the east side runs the most Republican (R+23), a spread of about 71 points.
Why Tarbellville leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Tarbellville, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Tarbellville votes against the grain of Vermont. Vermont leans Democratic overall, while Tarbellville runs about 35 points more Republican.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Tarbellville, VT sits above the national average on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Tarbellville looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 93% of households in Tarbellville own their home, about 10 points above the Vermont average of 83%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Belmont, VT R+6
- East Wallingford, VT R+17
- Danby, VT R+27
- Wallingford, VT R+15
- Mount Holly, VT R+5
- Hortonville, VT R+4
- Tinmouth, VT R+14
- Clarendon, VT R+19
- East Clarendon, VT R+21
- North Dorset, VT D+32
Cities with Similar Populations
- Lillis, KS R+60
- Cornhouse, AL R+56
- Ringgold, PA R+74
- Herring, WV R+60
- Shumway, AZ R+61
- Lawrence, UT R+71
- Peth, NY R+33
- Steel City, IL R+55
- Herndon, IA R+43
- Monument, KS R+79
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Vermont Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. VT did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the figures here come from extrapolation across demographic, health, and land-use features rather than local ground truth. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.