The Plains leans slightly Republican by roughly 12 points: about 44% of voters vote Democratic and 56% Republican.
About 76% of adults in The Plains typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in The Plains, ~33% vote Democratic, ~43% Republican, and ~24% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How The Plains compares
Among cities within 25 miles, The Plains leans more Republican than 55 of 103 neighbors.
The Plains runs about 17 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while The Plains is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within The Plains. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+23) and the northeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+4), a spread of about 19 points.
Why The Plains leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for The Plains, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
The Plains votes against the grain of Virginia. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while The Plains runs about 17 points more Republican. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 75% of households in The Plains are family households, above 77% of cities.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; The Plains, VA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in The Plains looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. The Plains is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 75%, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Belvoir, VA R+9
- Rectortown, VA R+26
- Broad Run, VA R+11
- Marshall, VA R+20
- Buckland, VA R+5
- Airlie, VA R+20
- Haymarket, VA Even
- Delaplane, VA R+28
- Middleburg, VA D+11
- Willisville, VA D+7
Cities with Similar Populations
- Capitan, NM R+53
- Woodsboro, TX R+37
- Huntland, TN R+69
- Hardin, KY R+62
- Hillsdale, NY D+28
- Three Lakes, WI R+16
- Boyne Falls, MI R+35
- Clay City, IN R+58
- White Oak, NC R+22
- Oakley, KS R+63
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.