Tinaja leans slightly Republican by roughly 10 points: about 45% of voters vote Democratic and 55% Republican.
About 44% of adults in Tinaja typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Tinaja, ~20% vote Democratic, ~24% Republican, and ~56% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Tinaja compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Tinaja leans more Republican than 4 of 9 neighbors.
Tinaja runs about 16 points more Republican than New Mexico as a whole. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while Tinaja is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Tinaja. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (D+46) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+54), a spread of about 100 points.
Why Tinaja leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Tinaja, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 1% of residents in Tinaja live in densely developed areas, about 17 points below the New Mexico average of 18%. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Tinaja sits in the bottom quarter (about 14%, below 80% of cities). A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 87% of households in Tinaja are family households, above 98% of cities.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Tinaja, NM sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Tinaja looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Tinaja is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 25% of adults in Tinaja report food insecurity, above 90% of cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 85% of adults in Tinaja have completed high school, below 80% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Ramah, NM D+14
- Pinehill, NM D+44
- Pescado, NM D+21
- Lower Nutria, NM R+17
- McGaffey, NM R+28
- San Rafael, NM R+39
- Milan, NM R+12
- Bluewater, NM R+20
- Prewitt, NM D+24
- Thoreau, NM D+20
Cities with Similar Populations
- Shady Glen, CA R+22
- Madisonville, MO R+70
- Sugar Grove, AR R+72
- Gifford, KY R+62
- Jacksonville, NJ R+27
- Sulphur Springs, IA R+50
- Rulo, NE R+62
- Gilman, VT R+34
- Marshfield, ME R+32
- Riverside, WY R+48
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.