McGaffey leans Republican by roughly 28 points: about 36% of voters vote Democratic and 64% Republican.
About 45% of adults in McGaffey typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in McGaffey, ~16% vote Democratic, ~29% Republican, and ~55% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How McGaffey compares
Among cities within 25 miles, McGaffey is the most Republican-leaning.
McGaffey runs about 34 points more Republican than New Mexico as a whole. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while McGaffey is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within McGaffey. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+43) and the northeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+7), a spread of about 37 points.
Why McGaffey leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for McGaffey, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 1% of residents in McGaffey live in densely developed areas, about 16 points below the New Mexico average of 18%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 95% of households in McGaffey are family households, in the top fraction of cities. McGaffey runs against the grain of New Mexico, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density, never-married share, and Republican lean
Places that combine low population density and a never-married-heavy adult population tend to lean Republican, as McGaffey, NM does.
Why turnout in McGaffey looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. McGaffey is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 20% of adults in McGaffey report food insecurity, above 80% of cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 85% of adults in McGaffey have completed high school, below 80% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Lower Nutria, NM R+17
- Continental Divide, NM D+19
- Ramah, NM D+14
- Thoreau, NM D+20
- Perea, NM D+29
- Pescado, NM D+21
- Jamestown, NM D+8
- Fort Wingate, NM D+32
- Coolidge, NM D+33
- Tinaja, NM R+10
Cities with Similar Populations
- Reevytown, NJ R+24
- Rockypoint, WY R+83
- Florida, NM R+8
- Rutersville, TX R+65
- Las Tablas, NM D+31
- Schattel, TX R+41
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.