Thoreau leans Democratic by roughly 20 points: about 60% of voters vote Democratic and 40% Republican.
About 58% of adults in Thoreau typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Thoreau, ~35% vote Democratic, ~23% Republican, and ~42% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Thoreau compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Thoreau leans more Democratic than 6 of 16 neighbors.
Thoreau runs about 14 points more Democratic than New Mexico as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Thoreau. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+28) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+37), a spread of about 65 points.
Why Thoreau leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Thoreau, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many never-married adults vote Democratic. About 59% of adults in Thoreau have never been married, far above similar-sized cities (around 27%).
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Thoreau, NM sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Thoreau looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Thoreau is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 40%, about 17 points below the New Mexico average of 58%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 44% of adults in Thoreau report food insecurity, in the top fraction of cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 73% of adults in Thoreau have completed high school, below 97% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Continental Divide, NM D+19
- Prewitt, NM D+24
- Smith Lake, NM D+24
- Coolidge, NM D+33
- McGaffey, NM R+28
- Bluewater, NM R+20
- Crownpoint, NM D+39
- Fort Wingate, NM D+32
- Perea, NM D+29
- Jamestown, NM D+8
Cities with Similar Populations
- Volant, PA R+50
- Friant, CA R+40
- Lakefield, MN R+44
- Cairo, NY R+24
- East Williston, NY R+22
- Deerwood, MN R+27
- Marshfield Hills, MA D+7
- Creal Springs, IL R+58
- Marlborough, MO D+20
- Pine Beach, NJ R+22
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.