Tinian leans Republican by roughly 28 points: about 36% of voters vote Democratic and 64% Republican.
About 68% of adults in Tinian typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Tinian, ~24% vote Democratic, ~44% Republican, and ~32% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Tinian compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Tinian leans more Republican than 4 of 14 neighbors.
Tinian runs about 33 points more Republican than New Mexico as a whole. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while Tinian is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Tinian. The northeast side is the most split-leaning (R+47) and the south side is the least split-leaning (Even), a spread of about 47 points.
Why Tinian leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Tinian, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 90% of residents in Tinian drive to work alone, about 16 points above the U.S. average of 74%. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Tinian sits in the bottom quarter (about 10%, below 92% of cities). Tinian runs against the grain of New Mexico, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Tinian, NM sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Tinian looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Tinian is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 49%, about 8 points below the New Mexico average of 58%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Lee Acres, NM R+53
- Napi Headquarters, NM R+2
- DeSmet, NM R+33
- Farmington, NM R+33
- Bloomfield, NM R+45
- Flora Vista, NM R+58
- Kirtland, NM R+18
- Aztec, NM R+47
- Fruitland, NM R+4
- La Plata, NM R+57
Cities with Similar Populations
- Rock Creek, IA R+41
- Superior, IA R+45
- Peetz, CO R+68
- Orrs, TX R+61
- Mount Zion, MO R+64
- Luna, AR R+66
- Breedsville, MI R+31
- Murphy, GA R+77
- Henrietta, TN R+60
- Darlington, FL R+74
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.