Tolar is a Republican stronghold. About 24% of voters here vote Democratic and 76% Republican.
About 51% of adults in Tolar typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Tolar, ~12% vote Democratic, ~39% Republican, and ~49% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Tolar compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Tolar leans more Republican than 2 of 3 neighbors.
Tolar runs about 58 points more Republican than New Mexico as a whole. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while Tolar is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Tolar. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+73) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+43), a spread of about 29 points.
Why Tolar leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Tolar, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Tolar votes against the grain of New Mexico. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while Tolar runs about 58 points more Republican. Rural areas vote Republican, and Tolar sits in the bottom quarter on density (fewer than 1%, in the bottom fraction of cities). Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Tolar sits in the bottom quarter (about 14%, below 82% of cities).
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Tolar, NM sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Tolar looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Tolar is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 28% of households in Tolar rent, above 81% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Taiban, NM R+48
- Fort Sumner, NM R+33
- Krider, NM R+77
- House, NM R+73
- Melrose, NM R+59
- Yeso, NM R+42
- Kenna, NM R+78
- Floyd, NM R+75
- Elida, NM R+79
- St. Vrain, NM R+74
Cities with Similar Populations
- Silver City, ID R+74
- Mitchellsville, NY R+28
- Bradley, MS R+51
- Fosheeton, AL R+71
- Mount Herman, OK R+83
- Blanchard, IA R+57
- Lee Center, IL R+39
- Natrona, WY R+81
- Fraleytown, VA R+77
- Lemoore Naval Air Station, CA R+37
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.