Toms Place is a true toss-up. About 49% of voters here vote Democratic and 51% Republican.
About 59% of adults in Toms Place typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Toms Place, ~29% vote Democratic, ~30% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Toms Place compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Toms Place sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 3 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 5 leaning the other way.
Toms Place runs about 23 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Toms Place sits closer to the political middle.
Why Toms Place leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Toms Place, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Toms Place votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Toms Place runs about 23 points more Republican.
Population density, never-married share, and Republican lean
Places that combine low population density and a never-married-heavy adult population tend to lean Republican, as Toms Place, CA does.
Why turnout in Toms Place looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 5% of homes in Toms Place have more than one occupant per room, above 86% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Crestview, CA R+4
- Benton, CA D+5
- Laws, CA R+22
- Bishop, CA Even
- Mesa, CA R+6
- Round Valley, CA D+8
- Dyer, NV R+60
- Keough Hot Springs, CA R+11
- Big Pine, CA R+12
- Mammoth Lakes, CA D+19
Cities with Similar Populations
- Rabbit Hash, KY R+54
- Havelock, IA R+49
- Glencoe, NM R+42
- Sharp, LA R+68
- Johnson, OK R+56
- McKinley, NY R+41
- Fort Davis, AL D+75
- Richfield, CO R+31
- Butts, MO R+66
- Cadiz, TX R+59
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.