Mesa leans slightly Republican by roughly 6 points: about 47% of voters vote Democratic and 53% Republican.
About 45% of adults in Mesa typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Mesa, ~21% vote Democratic, ~24% Republican, and ~55% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Mesa compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Mesa leans more Republican than 5 of 8 neighbors.
Mesa runs about 27 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Mesa is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Mesa leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Mesa, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. Fewer than 1% of residents in Mesa live in densely developed areas, about 57 points below the California average of 58%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 81% of households in Mesa are family households, above 91% of cities. Mesa runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Mesa, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Mesa looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 4% of homes in Mesa have more than one occupant per room, above 83% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Round Valley, CA D+8
- Bishop, CA Even
- Laws, CA R+22
- Crestview, CA R+4
- Keough Hot Springs, CA R+11
- Benton, CA D+5
- Toms Place, CA R+2
- Big Pine, CA R+12
- Mammoth Lakes, CA D+19
- Dyer, NV R+60
Cities with Similar Populations
- Dalewood, SC R+76
- Itmann, WV R+70
- Pear Valley, TX R+74
- Taylors Island, MD R+49
- Wytopitlock, ME R+46
- Yantley, AL D+58
- Bethel, LA R+79
- Wilson, OH R+67
- Hunter Creek, OR R+9
- Dog Island Corner, ME D+22
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.