Tonica leans heavily Republican by roughly 40 points: about 30% of voters vote Democratic and 70% Republican.
About 81% of adults in Tonica typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Tonica, ~24% vote Democratic, ~57% Republican, and ~19% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Tonica compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Tonica leans more Republican than 43 of 72 neighbors.
Tonica runs about 51 points more Republican than Illinois as a whole. Illinois leans Democratic overall, while Tonica is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Tonica. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+42) and the northwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+15), a spread of about 27 points.
Why Tonica leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Tonica, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Tonica votes against the grain of Illinois. Illinois leans Democratic overall, while Tonica runs about 51 points more Republican.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Tonica, IL sits above the national average on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Tonica looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 90% of households in Tonica own their home, about 11 points above the Illinois average of 80%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in Tonica have completed high school, above 81% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Vermilionville, IL R+43
- Leonore, IL R+44
- Oglesby, IL R+17
- Cedar Point, IL R+17
- Lostant, IL R+44
- Mount Palatine, IL R+44
- Standard, IL R+32
- North Utica, IL R+25
- Lasalle, IL R+9
- Peru, IL R+10
Cities with Similar Populations
- Mineral Springs, AR D+14
- Cumberland, OH R+63
- Waterville, WA R+38
- Castleberry, AL R+17
- Langhorne Manor, PA D+3
- Bingham, ME R+31
- Tuckasegee, NC R+31
- Orlinda, TN R+63
- Necaise, MS R+84
- Casco, WI R+44
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Illinois State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.