Tonka Bay, MN Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Tonka Bay

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Tonka Bay leans Democratic by roughly 16 points: about 58% of voters vote Democratic and 42% Republican.

 

About more than 99% of adults in Tonka Bay typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Tonka Bay, ~59% vote Democratic, ~43% Republican, and ~-2% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Tonka Bay compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Tonka Bay leans more Democratic than 63 of 100 neighbors.

Tonka Bay runs about 12 points more Democratic than Minnesota as a whole.

Why Tonka Bay leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Tonka Bay, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 63% of adults in Tonka Bay hold a bachelor's degree, about 34 points above the U.S. average of 28%. Dense areas vote Democratic, and Tonka Bay sits in the top fifth on density (about 42%, above 85% of cities).

Walkability and Democratic lean

Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Tonka Bay, MN sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.

Why turnout in Tonka Bay looks the way it does

Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Tonka Bay is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 72%, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and more than 99% of adults in Tonka Bay have completed high school, in the top fraction of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Minnesota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.