Trail Creek is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.
About 60% of adults in Trail Creek typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Trail Creek, ~31% vote Democratic, ~29% Republican, and ~40% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Trail Creek compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Trail Creek leans more Democratic than 48 of 59 neighbors.
Trail Creek runs about 23 points more Democratic than Indiana as a whole. Indiana leans Republican overall, while Trail Creek is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Trail Creek. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+11) and the west side runs the most Republican (Even), a spread of about 13 points.
Why Trail Creek leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Trail Creek, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Trail Creek votes against the grain of Indiana. Indiana leans Republican overall, while Trail Creek runs about 23 points more Democratic.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Trail Creek, IN sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Trail Creek looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 37% of households in Trail Creek rent, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Michigan City, IN D+12
- Pottawattamie Park, IN D+19
- Waterford, IN R+19
- Long Beach, IN D+17
- Town of Pines, IN R+15
- Michiana Shores, IN D+6
- Michiana, MI D+18
- Beverly Shores, IN R+8
- Grand Beach, MI D+18
- Pinola, IN R+29
Cities with Similar Populations
- Cave City, AR R+65
- Holt, FL R+69
- Colcord, OK R+67
- Veedersburg, IN R+60
- Millington, NJ Even
- Angwin, CA D+26
- Bottineau, ND R+43
- Daleville, IN R+44
- Lisbon, IA R+19
- Cologne, MN R+33
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Indiana Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.