Trumbull County leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.
About 74% of adults in Trumbull County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Trumbull County, ~31% vote Democratic, ~43% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Trumbull County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Trumbull County leans more Republican than 5 of 14 neighbors.
Trumbull County runs about 5 points more Republican than Ohio as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Trumbull County. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+11) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+38), a spread of about 49 points.
Why Trumbull County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Trumbull County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Trumbull County votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 62%, well above the Ohio average of 34%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Trumbull County, OH sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Trumbull County looks the way it does
Turnout in Trumbull County sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Mahoning County, OH Even
- Mercer County, PA R+27
- Portage County, OH R+12
- Lawrence County, PA R+28
- Geauga County, OH R+30
- Columbiana County, OH R+45
- Ashtabula County, OH R+32
- Summit County, OH D+10
- Lake County, OH R+11
- Stark County, OH R+18
Counties with Similar Populations
- Hall County, GA R+32
- Hawaii County, HI D+20
- Anderson County, SC R+43
- St. Louis County, MN D+12
- Yuma County, AZ R+8
- Onslow County, NC R+23
- Broome County, NY D+3
- Deschutes County, OR D+5
- Champaign County, IL D+29
- Racine County, WI D+7
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Ohio Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.