Turnbull leans Republican by roughly 24 points: about 38% of voters vote Democratic and 62% Republican.
About 85% of adults in Turnbull typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Turnbull, ~32% vote Democratic, ~53% Republican, and ~15% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Turnbull compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Turnbull leans more Republican than 40 of 87 neighbors.
Turnbull runs about 30 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Turnbull is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Turnbull. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+35) and the northwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+20), a spread of about 16 points.
Why Turnbull leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Turnbull, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Turnbull votes against the grain of Virginia. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Turnbull runs about 30 points more Republican. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 76% of households in Turnbull are family households, above 77% of cities.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Turnbull, VA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Turnbull looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Turnbull is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 73%, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Jeffersonton, VA R+36
- Amissville, VA R+35
- Botha, VA R+33
- Warrenton, VA R+7
- Orlean, VA R+20
- Oakshade, VA R+39
- Viewtown, VA R+26
- Airlie, VA R+20
- Casanova, VA R+22
- Marshall, VA R+20
Cities with Similar Populations
- Flint, WV R+72
- Trapp, VA R+15
- Hastings, IA R+49
- Newby, OK R+66
- Spencer, SD R+53
- Sanatorium, MS R+49
- Norwood, IA R+51
- Russell, AR R+71
- Bug, KY R+70
- Hayes Center, NE R+87
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.