Turtle Creek is a Democratic stronghold. About 88% of voters here vote Democratic and 12% Republican.
About 65% of adults in Turtle Creek typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Turtle Creek, ~57% vote Democratic, ~8% Republican, and ~35% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Turtle Creek compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Turtle Creek leans more Democratic than 9 of 10 neighbors.
Turtle Creek runs about 88 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while Turtle Creek is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Why Turtle Creek leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Turtle Creek, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural, majority-Black areas of the Southern Black Belt vote Democratic, against the usual rural pattern. About 82% of residents in Turtle Creek are Black or African American, about 69 points above the Florida average of 13%. Turtle Creek runs against the grain of Florida, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Turtle Creek, Jacksonville, FL sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Turtle Creek looks the way it does
Turnout in Turtle Creek sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Biscayne, Jacksonville, FL D+59
- Highlands, Jacksonville, FL D+47
- Riverview, Jacksonville, FL D+57
- Duval, Jacksonville, FL R+21
- Biscayne Terrace, Jacksonville, FL D+65
- Lake Forest, Jacksonville, FL D+66
- Oceanway, Jacksonville, FL R+7
- Sherwood Forest, Jacksonville, FL D+78
- Tallulah-North Shore, Jacksonville, FL D+50
- Panama Park, Jacksonville, FL D+41
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Brentwood, Jacksonville, FL D+76
- Woodlawn Lake, San Antonio, TX D+37
- South Central, Raleigh, NC D+69
- The Lakes-Country Club, Spring Valley, NV D+11
- Wood Streets, Riverside, CA D+17
- Franklin Heights, Milwaukee, WI D+88
- Central Park, Chicago, IL D+80
- Foothills, Henderson, NV R+17
- Black Rock, Buffalo, NY D+29
- Brookside, Erie, PA Even
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.