Duval leans Republican by roughly 22 points: about 39% of voters vote Democratic and 61% Republican.
About 71% of adults in Duval typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Duval, ~28% vote Democratic, ~43% Republican, and ~29% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Duval compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Duval is the most Republican-leaning.
Duval runs about 8 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Why Duval leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Duval. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Duval, Jacksonville, FL sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Duval looks the way it does
Turnout in Duval sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Oceanway, Jacksonville, FL R+7
- Pecan Park, Jacksonville, FL D+9
- The Cape, Jacksonville, FL R+9
- Turtle Creek, Jacksonville, FL D+75
- Biscayne, Jacksonville, FL D+59
- Highlands, Jacksonville, FL D+47
- Riverview, Jacksonville, FL D+57
- Charter Point, Jacksonville, FL D+28
- Lake Forest, Jacksonville, FL D+66
- Panama Park, Jacksonville, FL D+41
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Westgate, Fargo, ND D+10
- Beulah Heights, Pueblo, CO D+10
- Middletown, San Diego, CA D+47
- Harbor, Ashtabula, OH R+7
- Rittersville, Allentown, PA D+10
- Jefferson, San Antonio, TX D+36
- Barcroft, Arlington, VA D+48
- Madison-Eastend, Baltimore, MD D+85
- Walnut Creek, Pembroke Pines, FL D+18
- Lowry Hill, Minneapolis, MN D+74
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.