Union County leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 76% of adults in Union County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Union County, ~28% vote Democratic, ~48% Republican, and ~24% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Union County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Union County leans more Republican than 3 of 13 neighbors.
Union County runs about 24 points more Republican than Pennsylvania as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Union County. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+17) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+64), a spread of about 82 points.
Why Union County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Union County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 73% of households in Union County are family households, about 7 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Union County, PA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Union County looks the way it does
Turnout in Union County sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Snyder County, PA R+50
- Northumberland County, PA R+39
- Montour County, PA R+23
- Lycoming County, PA R+34
- Clinton County, PA R+46
- Columbia County, PA R+32
- Juniata County, PA R+62
- Perry County, PA R+52
- Sullivan County, PA R+50
- Mifflin County, PA R+58
Counties with Similar Populations
- Montrose County, CO R+30
- Davie County, NC R+45
- Fulton County, OH R+45
- Camden County, MO R+54
- Miller County, AR R+26
- Manassas City, VA D+14
- Danville City, VA D+32
- Franklin County, TN R+59
- Vance County, NC D+19
- Erath County, TX R+55
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Pennsylvania Department of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.