Vandenberg AFB is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.
About 34% of adults in Vandenberg AFB typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Vandenberg AFB, ~18% vote Democratic, ~16% Republican, and ~66% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Vandenberg AFB compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Vandenberg AFB leans more Democratic than 12 of 19 neighbors.
Vandenberg AFB runs about 17 points more Republican than California as a whole.
Why Vandenberg AFB leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Vandenberg AFB. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Vandenberg AFB, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Vandenberg AFB looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. More than 99% of households in Vandenberg AFB rent, about 75 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 6% of homes in Vandenberg AFB have more than one occupant per room, above 91% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Vandenberg Air Force Base, CA D+3
- Vandenberg Village, CA R+4
- Casmalia, CA D+4
- Lompoc, CA D+10
- Orcutt, CA R+8
- Surf, CA R+15
- Garey, CA R+30
- Los Alamos, CA R+5
- Santa Maria, CA D+10
- Guadalupe, CA D+15
Cities with Similar Populations
- Orrington, ME R+9
- Kitts Hill, OH R+65
- Brooksville, KY R+61
- Westhampton, NY Even
- Culver, IN R+40
- Level Park-Oak Park, MI R+22
- Webster, WI R+28
- Port Crane, NY R+34
- Spencer, OH R+47
- Bridgeport, AL R+66
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.