Vermilion is a Republican stronghold. About 20% of voters here vote Democratic and 80% Republican.
About 73% of adults in Vermilion typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Vermilion, ~15% vote Democratic, ~58% Republican, and ~27% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Vermilion compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Vermilion leans more Republican than 56 of 75 neighbors.
Vermilion runs about 70 points more Republican than Illinois as a whole. Illinois leans Democratic overall, while Vermilion is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Vermilion leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Vermilion, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 88% of residents in Vermilion drive to work alone, about 14 points above the U.S. average of 74%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 78% of households in Vermilion are family households, above 84% of cities. Vermilion runs against the grain of Illinois, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Vermilion, IL sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Vermilion looks the way it does
Turnout in Vermilion sits close to the national pattern. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Libertyville, IN R+48
- Nevins, IL R+59
- Paris, IL R+44
- Elbridge, IL R+59
- Universal, IN R+51
- Oliver, IL R+59
- Liggett, IN R+45
- West Terre Haute, IN R+40
Cities with Similar Populations
- Middle Brook, MO R+64
- Nichburg, AL D+22
- Walloon Lake, MI R+25
- Slocum, RI Even
- Fenton, IA R+53
- Beulahville, VA R+43
- Atwood, OK R+72
- Cherry Grove, NC R+52
- Bannock, OH R+48
- Cedar Grove, NM R+24
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Illinois State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.