Vineyard leans slightly Democratic by roughly 10 points: about 55% of voters vote Democratic and 45% Republican.
About 58% of adults in Vineyard typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Vineyard, ~32% vote Democratic, ~26% Republican, and ~42% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Vineyard compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Vineyard leans more Democratic than 38 of 48 neighbors.
Vineyard runs about 41 points more Democratic than Arkansas as a whole. Arkansas leans Republican overall, while Vineyard is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Vineyard. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+17) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+19), a spread of about 36 points.
Why Vineyard leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Vineyard, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural, majority-Black areas of the Southern Black Belt vote Democratic, against the usual rural pattern. About 71% of residents in Vineyard are Black or African American, about 60 points above the Arkansas average of 11%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 50% of adults in Vineyard have never been married, above 98% of cities. Vineyard runs against the grain of Arkansas, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Vineyard, AR sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Vineyard looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Vineyard is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 46%, about 6 points below the Arkansas average of 51%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 30% of households in Vineyard rent, above 84% of cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 27% of adults in Vineyard report food insecurity, above 93% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Trenton, AR D+17
- Rondo, AR R+12
- Spring Creek, AR R+16
- Hicks, AR D+15
- Marvell, AR Even
- Poplar Grove, AR R+20
- Aubrey, AR R+15
- Kingtown, AR Even
- Postelle, AR D+4
- Lexa, AR R+45
Cities with Similar Populations
- Adna, WA R+44
- Fletchers Landing, ME R+25
- Mooresville, AL Even
- Square Butte, MT R+50
- Willowdale, KS R+70
- Lumber City, PA R+65
- Vallecitos, NM D+30
- Veo, IA R+47
- Turnip Hole, PA R+69
- Mappsburg, VA R+20
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.