Wagoner County leans heavily Republican by roughly 40 points: about 30% of voters vote Democratic and 70% Republican.
About 66% of adults in Wagoner County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Wagoner County, ~20% vote Democratic, ~46% Republican, and ~34% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Wagoner County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Wagoner County leans more Republican than 4 of 9 neighbors.
Wagoner County runs about 8 points more Democratic than Oklahoma as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Wagoner County. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+59) and the northwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+31), a spread of about 28 points.
Why Wagoner County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Wagoner County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 75% of households in Wagoner County are family households, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; Wagoner County, OK sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Wagoner County looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 82% of households in Wagoner County own their home, about 7 points above the U.S. average of 75%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Tulsa County, OK Even
- Rogers County, OK R+49
- Muskogee County, OK R+29
- Mayes County, OK R+56
- Okmulgee County, OK R+40
- Creek County, OK R+55
- Cherokee County, OK R+28
- Osage County, OK R+39
- McIntosh County, OK R+55
- Washington County, OK R+40
Counties with Similar Populations
- Bulloch County, GA R+10
- Caldwell County, NC R+47
- Manitowoc County, WI R+24
- Clearfield County, PA R+46
- Floyd County, IN R+18
- Yuba County, CA R+16
- Payne County, OK R+18
- Cape Girardeau County, MO R+34
- Kosciusko County, IN R+47
- Leavenworth County, KS R+20
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Oklahoma State Election Board, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.