Caldwell County leans heavily Republican by roughly 46 points: about 27% of voters vote Democratic and 73% Republican.
About 79% of adults in Caldwell County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Caldwell County, ~21% vote Democratic, ~58% Republican, and ~21% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Caldwell County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Caldwell County leans more Republican than 9 of 18 neighbors.
Caldwell County runs about 44 points more Republican than North Carolina as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Caldwell County. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+61) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+32), a spread of about 29 points.
Why Caldwell County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Caldwell County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 82% of residents in Caldwell County drive to work alone, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 74%.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Caldwell County, NC sits below the national average on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Caldwell County looks the way it does
Turnout in Caldwell County sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Burke County, NC R+40
- Alexander County, NC R+56
- Catawba County, NC R+33
- Watauga County, NC D+6
- Avery County, NC R+52
- Wilkes County, NC R+57
- McDowell County, NC R+50
- Lincoln County, NC R+45
- Mitchell County, NC R+56
- Ashe County, NC R+47
Counties with Similar Populations
- Clearfield County, PA R+46
- Floyd County, IN R+18
- Wagoner County, OK R+40
- Kosciusko County, IN R+47
- Bulloch County, GA R+10
- Umatilla County, OR R+34
- Natrona County, WY R+41
- Manitowoc County, WI R+24
- Putnam County, TN R+43
- Clinton County, NY R+5
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from North Carolina State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.