Wagoner leans heavily Republican by roughly 42 points: about 29% of voters vote Democratic and 71% Republican.
About 60% of adults in Wagoner typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Wagoner, ~17% vote Democratic, ~43% Republican, and ~40% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Wagoner compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Wagoner leans more Republican than 7 of 39 neighbors.
Wagoner runs about 7 points more Democratic than Oklahoma as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Wagoner. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+52) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+33), a spread of about 18 points.
Why Wagoner leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Wagoner, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Wagoner votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 26%, modestly above the Oklahoma average of 18%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Wagoner, OK sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Wagoner looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 30% of households in Wagoner rent, about 5 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Okay, OK R+51
- Yonkers, OK R+61
- Tullahassee, OK R+57
- Porter, OK R+55
- Hulbert, OK R+47
- McBride, OK R+38
- Peggs, OK R+52
- Fort Gibson, OK R+49
- Murphy, OK R+65
Cities with Similar Populations
- West Grove, PA D+4
- Cortland, OH R+27
- Fort Mitchell, KY R+13
- Quinlan, TX R+66
- Port Jefferson Station, NY R+15
- Reedsburg, WI R+19
- Aztec, NM R+47
- Grafton, OH R+27
- Claremont, NH R+19
- Whitefish, MT R+6
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Oklahoma State Election Board, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.