Warren leans heavily Republican by roughly 38 points: about 31% of voters vote Democratic and 69% Republican.
About 69% of adults in Warren typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Warren, ~21% vote Democratic, ~48% Republican, and ~31% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Warren compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Warren leans more Republican than 28 of 54 neighbors.
Warren runs about 48 points more Republican than Illinois as a whole. Illinois leans Democratic overall, while Warren is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Warren leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Warren, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Warren votes against the grain of Illinois. Illinois leans Democratic overall, while Warren runs about 48 points more Republican. Car-dependent areas vote Republican, and about 85% of residents in Warren drive to work alone, above 82% of cities.
Housing overcrowding and voter turnout
Places with low overcrowding tend to turn out at a higher rate; Warren, IL sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Warren looks the way it does
Turnout in Warren sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Nora, IL R+42
- Gratiot, WI R+41
- South Wayne, WI R+42
- Winslow, WI R+42
- Apple River, IL R+32
- Waddams Grove, IL R+48
- Riverside, WI R+40
- Winslow, IL R+49
- Stockton, IL R+28
- Wiota, WI R+39
Cities with Similar Populations
- Holloway, LA R+88
- Mountain City, GA R+56
- Robert Lee, TX R+65
- Cadwell, GA R+74
- Dove, MO R+69
- East Montpelier, VT D+23
- Brooklyn, MS R+76
- Congerville, IL R+48
- Westfield Center, OH R+38
- Toughkenamon, PA R+5
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Illinois State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.