Warrensburg leans Republican by roughly 18 points: about 41% of voters vote Democratic and 59% Republican.
About 58% of adults in Warrensburg typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Warrensburg, ~24% vote Democratic, ~34% Republican, and ~42% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Warrensburg compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Warrensburg is the least Republican-leaning.
Politically, Warrensburg sits close to the rest of Missouri.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Warrensburg. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+10) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+40), a spread of about 50 points.
Why Warrensburg leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Warrensburg, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Warrensburg votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 51%, well above the Missouri average of 22%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Never-married share, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine a never-married-heavy adult population and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as Warrensburg, MO does.
Why turnout in Warrensburg looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 47% of households in Warrensburg rent, about 22 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Montserrat, MO R+49
- Centerview, MO R+52
- Knob Noster, MO R+41
- Whiteman AFB, MO R+23
- Fayetteville, MO R+61
- Valley City, MO R+59
- Whiteman Air Force Base, MO R+51
- Leeton, MO R+61
- Columbus, MO R+60
- Chilhowee, MO R+64
Cities with Similar Populations
- Hazelwood, MO D+37
- Murrells Inlet, SC R+37
- Albemarle, NC R+34
- Westchase, FL R+6
- Lafayette, CA D+48
- Ennis, TX R+28
- Cockeysville, MD D+25
- Roanoke, TX R+27
- Gibsonia, PA R+11
- Whiting, NJ R+21
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.