Wilmington leans slightly Republican by roughly 12 points: about 44% of voters vote Democratic and 56% Republican.
About 77% of adults in Wilmington typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Wilmington, ~34% vote Democratic, ~43% Republican, and ~23% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Wilmington compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Wilmington leans more Republican than 18 of 75 neighbors.
Wilmington runs about 18 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Wilmington is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Wilmington leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Wilmington, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 89% of residents in Wilmington drive to work alone, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 74%. Wilmington runs against the grain of Virginia, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Wilmington, VA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Wilmington looks the way it does
Turnout in Wilmington sits close to the national pattern. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Wildwood, VA R+16
- Palmyra, VA R+26
- Cunningham, VA R+29
- Stage Junction, VA R+8
- Dixie, VA R+7
- Fork Union, VA R+12
- Kents Store, VA R+18
- Lake Monticello, VA Even
- Columbia, VA R+33
- Bremo Bluff, VA R+15
Cities with Similar Populations
- Dicksonburg, PA R+52
- Hunters, WA R+53
- West York, IL R+60
- West Delhi, NY R+12
- West Robbin, TN R+71
- Old Washington, OH R+56
- Sprague, AL R+9
- Horrell, PA R+51
- Glenwood, MO R+69
- Sessoms, GA R+59
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.