Lake Monticello, VA Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Lake Monticello

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Lake Monticello is a true toss-up. About 50% of voters here vote Democratic and 50% Republican.

 

About more than 99% of adults in Lake Monticello typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lake Monticello, ~53% vote Democratic, ~53% Republican, and ~-6% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Lake Monticello compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Lake Monticello sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 17 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 58 leaning the other way.

Lake Monticello runs about 6 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Lake Monticello. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+6) and the south side runs the most Republican (R+7), a spread of about 13 points.

Why Lake Monticello leans the way it does

Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Lake Monticello. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.

Cancer-screening access and voter turnout

Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Lake Monticello, VA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.

Why turnout in Lake Monticello looks the way it does

Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Lake Monticello is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 74%, about 14 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 95% of households in Lake Monticello own their home, about 20 points above the U.S. average of 75%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 98% of adults in Lake Monticello have completed high school, above 96% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.