Zavala County is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.
About 63% of adults in Zavala County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Zavala County, ~33% vote Democratic, ~30% Republican, and ~37% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Zavala County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Zavala County is the most Democratic-leaning.
Zavala County runs about 18 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole. Texas leans Republican overall, while Zavala County is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Zavala County. The northeast side runs the most Democratic (D+8) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+6), a spread of about 14 points.
Why Zavala County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Zavala County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Zavala County votes against the grain of Texas. Texas leans Republican overall, while Zavala County runs about 18 points more Democratic.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Zavala County, TX sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Zavala County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Zavala County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 40%, about 14 points below the Texas average of 54%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Dimmit County, TX R+4
- Uvalde County, TX R+23
- Maverick County, TX R+8
- Frio County, TX R+13
- La Salle County, TX R+13
- Kinney County, TX R+32
- Medina County, TX R+37
- Real County, TX R+64
- Atascosa County, TX R+37
- Val Verde County, TX R+12
Counties with Similar Populations
- Grand County, UT R+2
- Stevens County, MN R+37
- Irwin County, GA R+43
- Cumberland County, VA R+23
- Caldwell Parish, LA R+73
- Wayne County, NE R+44
- Rock County, MN R+45
- Marion County, TX R+49
- Switzerland County, IN R+63
- Humboldt County, IA R+43
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.