Atascosa County leans heavily Republican by roughly 38 points: about 31% of voters vote Democratic and 69% Republican.
About 58% of adults in Atascosa County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Atascosa County, ~18% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~42% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Atascosa County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Atascosa County leans more Republican than 5 of 7 neighbors.
Atascosa County runs about 24 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Atascosa County. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+65) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+19), a spread of about 46 points.
Why Atascosa County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Atascosa County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 16% of adults in Atascosa County hold a bachelor's degree, about 10 points below the Texas average of 26%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 73% of households in Atascosa County are family households, above 92% of counties.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Atascosa County, TX sits below the national average on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Atascosa County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Atascosa County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 50%, about 10 points below the U.S. average of 60%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 82% of adults in Atascosa County have completed high school, below 91% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Wilson County, TX R+50
- Medina County, TX R+37
- Bexar County, TX D+14
- Frio County, TX R+13
- McMullen County, TX R+59
- Karnes County, TX R+35
- Guadalupe County, TX R+23
- Bandera County, TX R+59
- Comal County, TX R+36
- Kendall County, TX R+49
Counties with Similar Populations
- Fremont County, CO R+25
- Henry County, IN R+47
- Edgecombe County, NC D+26
- Burnet County, TX R+56
- Vernon Parish, LA R+56
- Duplin County, NC R+23
- Henry County, IL R+24
- Dale County, AL R+43
- Halifax County, NC D+22
- St. Mary Parish, LA R+23
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.